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Don’t Fight The Fed

Wayne Gillespie • October 27, 2022

“Diversification should remain a key part of an investor’s portfolio strategy in today’s markets as returns may come from any one of a variety of sources.”

Here are a few highlights:

  • Accelerating inflation, the war in Europe, and aggressive monetary tightening were major contributors to one of the worst quarters in decades for financial markets.


  • The S&P 500 has dropped more than 20% this year and is now firmly in bear market territory.


  • The U.S. is in the late-cycle expansion phase with moderate recession risk, while Europe faces rising near-term recession risks. China shows signs of emerging from its growth recession amid increased stimulus.


  • Aggressive monetary tightening has triggered broad-based declines in bond prices. Meanwhile, the global economy is slowing, and the path forward for the markets hinges largely on price stability.


  • There are some early positive signs regarding the direction of inflation: commodity prices have turned lower; retailers are cutting prices; freight rates are declining, and Treasury bond yields have declined from their recent peak.


  • While any of these might be early positives for markets, we still expect market volatility to be here for some time.
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